In 1972, U.S. chess prodigy Bobby Fischer and Boris Spasskey, the chess camp from the-then Soviet Union, were set to compete in a tournament held in Iceland, but Bobby decided to become a problem instead. The two men had met in other tournaments, with Spasskey beating Fischer handily in each match. At the tournament set in Iceland, however, Fischer complained about everything from the venue to the purse to the seating to the lights, arriving so late to the first match that he flirted with a forfeit before showing up at the last possible moment.
Fischer lost the first game, making moves that seemed impossible blunders, uncharacteristic of a master. Spasskey, and others, wondered if Fischer had deliberately thrown the match, or was he rattled? Or perhaps even insane? What was Fischer’s strategy? Did he have one?
Fischer lost the second game as well, to forfeit. Down two games to none, everyone – particularly Spasskey – expected Fischer to go down in defeat. But in the third game, however, Fischer focused with a predatory eye. After he made what appeared to be a mistake, Spasskey suspected but could not find a trap, and cautiously backed away from the kill. Fischer ultimately checkmated Spasskey, winning the match.
In the following games Fischer made moves no one had seen before, performed completely out of character, and threw Spasskey totally off his game. By the sixth game, Spasskey was in tears, claiming alternatively that Fischer was trying to hypnotize him, that he had been drugged, and that there was something in the chairs altering his mind. The chairs were analyzed chemically but nothing was found. Spasskey began to complain of hallucinations and ultimately resigned from the chess tournament in defeat, never regaining his previous dominance in the sport.
“Chess contains the concentrated essence of life:” [p. 126]
… to win, one must be consistently patient and prescient; chess, as life, is based on patterns,
and whole sequences of moves have been played before and will be played again, with slight variances.
Patience and recognizing patterns equals success.
Prior to the tournament Spasskey consistently beat Fischer, anticipating his moves and reading his strategy, using his competitor’s predictability as a weapon. Once Fischer finally understood Spasskey’s approach he could defeat it by intentionally obsfucating his historical patterns and hiding his scent. Fischer had to ensure Spasskey never knew what he would do next, even if it meant losing in the beginning to win at the end.
If others cannot predict your patterns, if you are consistently inconsistent … constantly unpredictable … capriciously rash … when dealing with you others will dwell in a state of confusion, wariness, and fear, terrified of your next move and uncertain how to react.
Failed in every business venture (e.g., Trump Steaks, Trump University, even the Apprentice got cancelled), managed to bankrupt a casino, well-known and ill-reputable as a real estate developer, yet and still dupes wide swaths of the paying public into believing his acumen and skill as a businessman, entrepreneur, and overall financial guru. Deliberately unpredictable, Donald J. Trump has perfected the art of the mind game.
“A person of power instills a kind of fear
by deliberately unsettling those around him
to keep the initiative on his side.” [p. 126]
During the U.S. Civil War, Confederate General Stonewall Jackson and a troop of less than 5,000 of his soldiers fought Union forces in Virginia’s Shenandoah Valley, while Union General George McClellan and an army of almost 100,000 men marched south from Washington, D.C. to lay siege to the Confederate capital in Richmond, Virginia. Jackson would repeatedly lead his soldiers out of the Shenandoah Valley then back to it, unsettling the Union leadership because his movements were nonsensical, and it appeared that he was leading his forces around in a circle. It was unclear if Jackson was marching to defend Richmond or to keep fighting in the valley. Due to unpredictability of his actions, the Union generals held back until they could figure out what Jackson was doing … in the interim, southern reinforcements arrived to fortify the capital city and forestall a rout. Jackson used the tactic of unpredictability on numerous occasions, remarking that such a strategy allowed a much smaller army to defeat stronger foe.
Caprice can function in negotiations; when a target cannot predict your motive, oftentimes the subject will counter the offer not made, in effect bidding against himself. Pablo Picasso worked for years with art dealer Paul Rosenberg until, inexplicably, he stopped and refused to give Rosenberg any more of his works to sell. For the next two days, Rosenberg wracked his brain trying to recall the unintended offense, the unconscious slight, the unthinking remark that caused Picasso to end their business arrangement. Finally, Rosenberg approached Picasso, metaphorical hat in hand, and asked if Picasso would accept a significantly higher sum for his work than their prior arrangement.
Picasso: “The best calculation is the absence of calculation.”
After a certain degree of recognition – i.e., predictability – has been established, any sudden departure from the norm will be met with surprise, dismay, confusion and consternation, and ultimately, a path to manipulation.
Patterns, routine, and predictability, however, can create advantages.
The Rumble in the Jungle, 1974’s uber-hyped heavyweight match between Muhammad Ali and George Foreman, was predicted to be a clash between Ali’s smooth flow and Foreman’s devastating blows, with Foreman expected to wait until Ali got tired of dancing then deliver his knockout punch. Ali always fought in a particular way, exhausting his opponents then striking in a barrage. However, during the pre-fight press conference Ali announced he would fight Foreman glove to glove; known for his bluster, Ali’s statements were dismissed, and Foreman expected him to fight in his usual way.
To everyone’s surprise, Ali did exactly what he said he would, slugging it out with Foreman. Caught off guard, Foreman spent the match trying to recover until Ali – a 4-to-1 underdog – landed a knockout blow in the 8th round to win the fight.
Here, the predictability of Ali’s fighting pattern overcame his announcement to change it, and Foreman was caught unaware despite being warned before the fight.
Fair warning: for this Law to be effective, one must have established a pattern before disrupting it. Too much unpredictability or inconsistency can be interpreted as unreliability, and while in a weaker or subordinate position, it may well be wise to allow others to rest in expectation and act as anticipated. Patterns are powerful, and further power may be gained by disrupting them.
Employ sparingly. Use cautiously.