Found a guy on the Tubes of You, Michael Bordenaro, who walks his neighborhood and predicts the pending economic collapse of the nation.  Good content, doomstrolling. 

Mr. Bordenaro revealed that there is this thing called the “Sahm Rule,” devised by Claudia Sahm (former mega-mind/big-brain at the Federal Reserve), a recession indicator that predicts that when the three-month unemployment figures increase by 0.5 percent … problems are on the way. 

The Sahm rule has predicted all 11 U.S. recessions since 1950 with 100 percent – yes perfect precision – accuracy, and suggests that we are currently in a recession, but the feds just refuse to acknowledge it.

Well, that’s encouraging.  Perhaps ignoring market conditions is a new economic model … call it the Ostrich Principle. 

Anyhoo, Amazon, UPS, and Home Depot all announced major layoffs, and hiring has slowed to a crawl.  The typical job-hunter is looking at six months or longer to secure another position, and usually at a lower wage or reduced benefits.

How cool is that.  Not.

BUT but, interestingly enough, unemployment is likely much MUCH higher than reported because – get this – the gig economy tends to conceal job loss … folks will start Ubering or Lyfting or GrubHubbing or DoorDashing to pay these bills instead of immediately filing for unemployment, with the hope that these bridge-wages will be temporary.

Also, consumer debt is at an all-time high – roughly $5T (yes, that’s “trillion,” with a “T”) – so folks are maintaining lifestyles with debt.  Nice.  {Matthew 25:8}

Fun fact:  recently got a rideshare, and the driver said not only have rides fallen off but the company is taking a bigger cut and AND the feds are cracking down on side-hustle income, so there’s that.

Mr. Bordenaro also revealed that US unemployment is not evaluated in any rational, practical way because the masters of mankind really do not want to know (or for anyone else to know, for that matter) just how bad things truly are, because excluded from the unemployment rates are those who have been out of work for more than six months and the masses of underemployed/those receiving poverty wages (hellooooo $7.25 minimum wage) … and securing a living wage job – one where costs of living are covered (that is, housing, utilities, food, transportation, healthcare and ABSOLUTELY NOTHING ELSE) are few and far between, virtually nonexistent at this point.

He discusses an economist’s concept called “Knife-Edge Labor Market,” which is the number of jobs that must be created to prevent unemployment from rising … and those jobs just are not there. 

Another fun fact:  AI is killing many entry-level jobs, so substantial numbers of recent college graduates are finding themselves unable to even enter the job market for their chosen field (queue the barista with two masters degrees … “Soy milk or full fat?”) and wind up staying with parents well beyond their 20s, into their 30s, and even some 40s. 

No marriage, no kids, no independence.  The nest has become a multi-generational household. 

Between stagnant wages, hiring freezes, and crushing consumer debt, the conclusion is this:
the US economy is irretrievably broken, and the old ways of working no longer work.

The most frightening thing?  There likely will be no sudden, abrupt collapse. 

Nothing like the implosion of 2008.

Nothing like the devastation of 1987.

Nothing like the crash of 1929.

Rather, just a slow decline, a withering away, as life gets more and more expensive, and life retracts further and further away from the anticipated milestones. 

People will likely stop attending college – too expensive – stop buying homes – too expensive – no kids – too expensive – and just wait for the inevitable decline of parents, inherit the family home (assuming there is one) – and be cremated by distant relatives or the state. 

The masters of mankind ended themselves with unmitigated greed.  Which is fitting. 

Too bad they had to take the rest of us with them.